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five years into the future are at best guesstimates they have to be, as no one can predict the future (unless, of course, guaranteed future contracts have been signed) Potential investors are looking for projections grounded in defensible logic When asked how financiers know when pro formas are correct, a venture capitalist responded, We don t know In all likelihood, they will be ultimately wrong In a start-up, it is rare for pro formas to ever match reality We are looking for logical, defensible reasoning behind the numbers versus BS Blue Sky projections simply pulled out of the air DEVELOPMENT OF PRO FORMAS Entrepreneurs should develop pro forma financial statements for all new entrepreneurial opportunities, including either a start-up or an existing company that is being purchased Any pro forma should have figures for at least three years and three scenarios a best-case, worst-case, and most-likely-case scenario If only one scenario is provided, then the automatic assumption is that it is the best case because most people always put their best, not their worst, foot forward The historical performance of a company drives the financial projections for the future of that company, unless there is other information that indicates that past performance is not a good indicator of future performance For example, if a new contract has been signed with a new customer, then this could be used to adjust the financial projections Otherwise, historical numbers must be used

You can work faster in a word processing program You need to collaborate with others who don t have or know PowerPoint in order

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For instance, Livent Inc created major musicals such as Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat and Ragtime In 1998, the company added Chicago s Oriental Theatre to the three other companyowned theaters in New York, Toronto, and Vancouver Livent s pro formas for the newly renovated Oriental Theatre were allegedly based on its success with Joseph, which it had staged two years earlier at the Chicago theater and in similar venues throughout the country Livent s projections were as follows: Oriental Theatre 80 percent capacity 52 weeks per year $40 million annual gross revenues

a client, supervisor, or colleague Any time you have text already saved as a word processing document, import the text There s no need to duplicate the effort of typing it

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Before the end of 1998, Livent Inc experienced major financial difficulties and filed for 11 bankruptcy In bankruptcy court, an attorney for the city of Chicago, which filed a condemnation case, challenged the legitimacy of the pro formas He argued that the $40 million annual projected gross revenues was out of line with reality and intentionally fraudulent, given the fact that in a recent year, a similar theater located in downtown Chicago and similar in size, reported an annual gross of just $20,455,000! 9

Before importing the text, you should review it so that you get the results you want Most word processing programs have a feature called styles, which help you organize the formatting of your paragraphs For example, in Microsoft Word, heading styles are used for headings The Normal style is often used for the body of a paragraph PowerPoint uses these styles, if they exist in your outline, to organize your text into a complete presentation By creating the appropriate styles, you can determine exactly how your text will be organized on the slides of your presentation Figure 2-9 shows an example Here s how it works:

When there are no historical data, financial projections for a start-up company can be determined in one of the following ways:

Heading 1 style becomes the slide title Heading 2 style becomes first-level bulleted text Heading 3 style becomes second-level bulleted text and so on

Conduct an industry analysis and select a company within the same industry that can be used as a comparable Where possible, review the sales figures of this company to determine its sales history from Year 1 as well as its sales growth in the past few years Extrapolate from these figures and use the data to determine sales growth for your company Cost figures may be determined from cost data obtained through research on, for example, a publicly owned company in the same industry If sales commitments have already been secured, use these commitments to calculate the worst-case scenario Use larger amounts to calculate the best-case and most-likelycase scenarios If the product or service is completely new, market research can be undertaken to determine the overall market demand for this new product or service Identify the size of the market and assume that the company will get a specific percentage of the total market, depending on the total number of competitors Also, identify the potential customers and estimate the number of units that can be sold to each It is critical that whenever possible this market research be based on both secondary research (third party market reports and/or articles from credible sources) and also primary research (direct conversations and/or surveys with potential customers in the targeted segment) This ensures that the projections are based on reliable, defensible information sources and are not just back of the envelope guesses

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